Going solar. (Probably)

It's been a while since the last post, partially because I've been spending a lot of what little free time I have investigating solar energy. Well, that and playing a bit of Super Mario Galaxy 2 on the Wii. (which totally rox.)

Solar is a very interesting option right now in Australia. There's no rebate anymore, but instead they are offering 5x the RECs for 1.5kW systems and smaller. Renewable Energy Certificates are essentially shares that are traded as an investment in renewable energy. Australia has committed to 20% renewable energy by 2020. The prices for RECs fluctuate around $36-40, so depending on what price you can trade them for they can knock off around $6000 from a system. Each state government has also set up schemes to buy back energy produced from solar systems. This can be gross production or net production. Unfortunately in Qld they use net production which returns less, and is harder to estimate for. How it works is that when your solar system is producing electricity (typically between 09:00 and 15:00, any electricity your house isn't using gets fed back into the grid and you get paid between $0.44-0.60 per kWh. This offsets the cost of kWh you use outside of production time, and is currently close to 3x the cost of purchasing a kWh. (Qld has committed to this feed-in credit until at least 2028.)

A 1.5kW system doesn't produce a whole lot. It can generate typically under 1/3 of your household daily usage. However there's nothing stopping you from installing a larger system, except you won't get the bonus RECs for panels over 1.5kW. This means that while a 1.5kW system will set you back about $2,000-3,000 out of pocket, a 3kW system will cost a whopping $9,000-10,000! It would seem like a no-brainer that this investment wouldn't be worth it, except for a few key considerations.

With the 1.5kW system, the amount of total energy you produce is fairly small. Very little gets sold back into the grid so the REC credit basically makes the investment worth-while. A 3kW system's REC credit is only marginally higher, but the difference is output and the feed-in rate for excess energy. Every kWh fed into the grid is currently worth 3 kWh bought from the grid. Granted, this will decrease as electricity prices continue to rise unless the feed-in charges rise as well. The cost over return for the two systems, or even larger systems remains the same. Whether its a 1.5kW or 3kW system, they pay for themselves in about 5 years, but every year after that the larger systems produce significantly more profit. (Avg. lifespan is 25 years)

A 1.5kW system with feed-in of about 33% of its daily production can earn about $900 a year. A 3kW system with feed-in of about 69% of its daily production can earn about $2,000 a year. If both pay for themselves in 5 years, and we assume the $0.44 only applies until 2028, by 2028 the 1.5kW system will earn about $11,700, while a 3kW system will earn $26,000. If the rate carries through the full 25 year expectancy you're looking at $18,000/$40,000 respectively. However, this is assumming the panels were capable of 100% their production over their lifespan, they'll actually lose efficiency over time to about 80% by the age of 25, so those figures are probably around 15% too optimistic, plus you will likely need to pay for a new inverter within that time as well.

Like any investment there are unknown variables and risks associated with it. There is also the question of system quality and reputation for getting an installation. There is a lot of push in the market to get people on-board to take advantage of the 5x REC credit. This means a lot of demand for panels, and a lot of really dodgy ones showing up on the market.There are also a lot of new players in the market for selling and installing panels, including companies that got burned during the ramp-up to accept government handouts for insulation installations which was cut off sudenly after they were linked to 4 tradesmans deaths and at least 40 house fires. There are bargains easily visible out there, but I strongly believe in "you get what you pay for."  Now if I could only convince the Mrs. of that as well. She sees "bargain!", someone offering to do installations for $1,000 cheaper than the others. Wait, they're using a panel coming out of China from a company that has only been making panels for about 5 years. They're an electrical company that has only been doing solar installations for 1 year. Where-as nearly all other companies I contact charge an extra $250-400 for a tile roof due to the need for a special mounting bracket, these guys don't. These facts all send off alarm bells. Solar panels typically come with a 25 year performance guarantee. (which in itself probably isn't worth the paper it's written on, still...) If a company has only been making panels for 5 years, who's to say that within 25 years the "shine" of producing panels wears off and they shut down and gear up to produce something else before having to deal with any of those performance guarantees? They have no brand, no reputation. If you buy a Sharp panel and they don't work, it is a stain on the Sharp brand. Who's heard of "Taizhou Sopray"?? ("You bought them? so pray!":)  Having a company that's only been installing panels for a year and not charging extra for a mounting bracket for a tile roof says they aren't using the proper bracket on the roof which means the panels will be attached to tile so in a good windstorm they'll work tiles loose and damage the roof. It's not like they're more expensive than other installers and can hide the cost of the brackets.

Ah well, fun, fun. Lots of things to consider.